Thought leadership from WIN: A French polling case study

This paper discusses challenges facing political opinion polls with a particular focus on the 2017 French presidential election, drawing on various sources of voter data from that election as well as research into the influence of social bubbles and fake news on public opinion.

Preface

This paper is a contribution by the WIN Network (international association gathering leading independent market research and polling firms in their respective countries), to discussions on changes in the polling industry. Drawing on feedback from one), which tracked the 2017 French presidential election using various sources of data (web listening, an online community, and polls collected via POP2017 public opinion platform), it also presents the results of an experiment conducted with two behavioral scientists at the Santa Fe Institute (USA). The purpose of this joint research, which was conducted during the French presidential campaign, was to better understand the factors - particularly social bubbles - that influence voters as well as measure the impact of fake news on public opinion.

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