Global TV media costs surge almost a third post-pandemic

Media inflation is driving up the cost of advertising across channels, with TV most affected, according to an analysis by WARC Media. 

TV costs are rising fast

The latest Global Ad Trends* report, The rising cost of incremental reach, finds that, globally, TV CPMs (cost per thousand) have increased 31.2% since 2019 – the steepest incline in more than two decades – and are up 9.9% year-on-year in 2022. 

The trend is especially pronounced in the US, where TV CPMs are forecast to reach $73.14 in 2022, an increase of 40.0% on pre-COVID costs. 

For some categories the impact is heightened. According to WARC Media data, advertisers in the food category spent on average 79.8% of their budgets on TV in 2019, and in the automotive category, 67.7%. If they were to have maintained that same level of investment, by 2021 the volume of impressions would have decreased by 18 percentage points. 

Digital media costs are increasing too 

This twin trend of declining linear television viewership and rising TV media costs is encouraging advertisers to look elsewhere for incremental reach, but price pressure is being felt across the online media landscape. 

Paid social CPMs increased by 33% between 2019 and 2021 (source: Skai) and the growing popularity of retail media formats is pushing up the cost of advertising on platforms like Amazon. 

Channels such as broadcaster video on-demand (BVOD) provide an alternative source of incremental reach. However, over-the-top (OTT or streamed video) ad costs are rising too: inflation in advanced TV formats in the US is forecast to reach 9.9% in 2022, as per World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) figures.

Relative bargains can still be found in channels like radio

The pursuit of incremental reach has generally focused on digital audio-visual channels, as they offer a more straightforward transition from television. In comparison, offline channels are often under-utilised, despite not having witnessed the same levels of price inflation since 2019.

In Australia, the cost of radio media in 2022 remains 1.1% below pre-pandemic levels, while prices in the US are largely unchanged three years on. 

A similar picture emerges in out-of-home (OOH), incorporating both static and digital panels: in the UK, outdoor ad prices are 3.1% lower than before COVID-19, while, in the US, OOH remains 5.8% cheaper than it was in 2019.

Key quote

“As the global economy teeters on the brink of an inflationary recession, media costs may experience further volatility. Nonetheless, non-video channels are worth consideration if they are right for the audience” – Alex Brownsell, Head of Content, WARC Media.

*Global Ad Trends is a bi-monthly report which draws on WARC’s dataset of advertising and media intelligence to take a holistic view on current industry developments. A complimentary sample report of WARC Global Ad Trends: The rising cost of incremental reach is available here.

Sourced from WARC Media

Product placement works best in combination with ads

Using 30-second ad slots in tandem with product placement can significantly increase key metrics, from sales to website visits, according to research. 

A study* by BEN, a firm working in the product placement field, tied ad and product integration exposure to brands to actions taken by consumers within the following two weeks. Marketing Brew detailed the highlights.

Takeaways

• Doritos, with a product placement within The CW drama Riverdale, saw a 61% lift in sales among audiences who saw both a TV commercial and a product placement in the series – that was almost twice the 37% lift in sales resulting from audiences who only saw the TV commercial. 
• A cereal brand with a product placement in the CBS series Mom saw a 53% lift in sales among audiences who saw both a TV commercial and a product placement – more than 3x higher than the 13.5% lift from a TV commercial alone.
• An auto brand that advertised on ABC didn’t see any increase in website visits through TV commercials alone, but saw an 8% lift in website visits when audiences saw both ad and product integration. 

Why it matters

Apart from the greater effectiveness of combining ad and product placement, there are two other factors to consider. One is that product placement and media are frequently handled by different teams – there is scope for them to work more closely together. The second is that planning for such an outcome needs to be stepped up as such opportunities will only increase when Netflix and Disney+ deliver ad-supported offerings to run alongside their subscription products. 

A flexible future?

The world of product placement is a complicated one involving all sorts of potential trade-offs for content producers in terms of scripts and financing. Those could conceivably become a bit simpler – or at least different – if Amazon’s experiment with a beta version of “virtual product placement” proves successful. 

*Methodology: BEN and TV measurement and analytics firm 605 compared results from cereal, snack, and automotive brands that ran ads on CBS, The CW, and ABC, and which also had product placement in the CBS comedy Mom, the CW drama Riverdale, or the ABC late-night series Jimmy Kimmel Live, respectively. The study compared four audiences: viewers who saw at least two seconds of a brand’s linear ad; viewers who saw the brand’s product integration but no ad; viewers who saw both a linear ad and the same brand’s product integration; and viewers who saw neither ads nor product integrations. BEN also tracked products those audiences purchased within two weeks of the integration airing, using shopping data from Catalina; it also tracked audience visits to brand websites using data from LiveRamp.

Sourced from Marketing Brew, New York Times

Fossil focuses its marketing spend

Fossil, the timepiece and accessories company, will focus marketing expenditure on its most profitable businesses, and aim to drive an immediate return on investment (ROI), as it responds to the varied challenges of inflation and COVID-19 in its different trading regions.

Inflation impacts demand

• Greg McKelvey, Fossil’s evp/chief commercial officer, told investors on an earnings call that various “headwinds” were observable in its various geographies.
• In the Americas, data suggests the “overall market is down”, potentially due to unfavourable comparisons with last year, when US stimulus payments encouraged consumer spending.
• Sunil Doshi, Fossil’s chief financial officer, further noted that the Americans and Europe are facing a surge in the cost of living.
• “Consumer spending in discretionary categories, particularly ours, will experience some pressure due to sustained higher levels of inflation and some normalization of spending,” he said.

The on-going challenges of COVID-19

• In mainland China, there is still “COVID-related disruption” and Fossil will be “watching the market closely as it opens up a bit,” continued McKelvey.
• Markets in Asian countries that often benefit from Chinese tourism could also see knock-on challenges from this situation. Taken together with mainland China, these nations contribute around 50% of Fossil’s sales mix in the region.
• In India, “sequentially the revenues are very strong and we're pleased with the progress that we are seeing from consumer demand in the country,” Doshi said.

The strategic response

• First among four main strategic moves by Fossil in response to this environment is to “plan conservatively and execute aggressively,” McKelvey told investors. “While we are realistic about the headwinds we face in the market, all three regions are well-positioned with both quality and quantity of inventory and will aggressively take advantage of upside opportunity.”
• Secondly, Fossil will focus “on distorting and investing in our most profitable businesses, with increased sales effort, opened by allocation and marketing spend.”
• Thirdly, innovation will still be vital, albeit with an emphasis on “a much tighter assortment for 2023 that will align with our focus brands and category strategies.”
• Fourthly, “from a marketing perspective, given the current environment, we’re focusing on shifting our mix to more immediate ROI [and] conversion-driving digital marketing activations,” said McKelvey. Overall marketing spend should largely remain steady, and the company will “remain agile and ready to increase spend as we see improving trends in the macro [environment] and consumer purchasing behaviours,” he added.
  

Sourced from Seeking Alpha

Apple plots major ad business expansion

First hardware, then services, now Apple is looking to advertising across parts of its ecosystem beyond search advertising on the app store – in so doing, the effort raises complicated questions about the effects that Apple’s App Tracking Transparency has had on advertising-based companies ahead of ramping up its own advertising capability.

Why it matters

In the name of privacy, Apple introduced its ATT features (which effectively gave users the option to allow or not allow apps to track their behaviour across apps) in iOS 14.5, in mid 2021, when it was enforced system-wide.

Early indications suggested take up of the feature was high, given that tracker blocking was as simple as hitting a 'Do Not Allow' button when you first download an app. Soon after, the impact on its own business pointed to a lucrative new area for Apple, while the fortunes of digital ad businesses – especially Meta – began to dip. Many of those firms blamed the ATT changes for their struggles.

Now, according to reporting from Bloomberg, Apple is looking to grow the $4bn it already makes annually into a business bringing in tens of billions of dollars.

Whether it’s inconsistent or not, the bigger question surrounds whether this is a problematic advantage that it has exerted over both large rivals like Meta but also on smaller developers that relied on advertising to Apple users. As this business grows, expect more and more serious scrutiny.

The proposals

As Bloomberg’s report notes, Apple already advertises on

• The App Store (a kind of sponsored search advertising)
• Through display advertising on News and Stocks
• With TV style advertising during its Major League Baseball streaming.

Based on reports of exploration within the firm, a future direction for Apple’s ad business could come in the form of Google-Maps style sponsored map listings, or sponsored listings on other storefront style apps like books or podcasts, Bloomberg speculates.

If the fortunes of Amazon are anything to go by, advertising is anything but dead, especially with a global cohort of relatively affluent, loyal iOS users for whom some non-invasive advertising won’t make a huge difference but has the potential to make Apple huge amounts of money and bolster its non-hardware revenues.

There are still some issues, however. Apple, for instance, won’t be asking its users in each individual app if they are willing to be tracked (it argues that they aren’t being tracked across apps) even though there is a central setting to turn off personalised advertising.

So it does appear that there are differing rules for different players, which could become a problem in future.

Sourced from Bloomberg, WARC

Consumers have the answer to rising prices ... and brands won’t like it

Consumers struggling to make ends meet take an uncomplicated view of what brands need to do to tackle price rises: cut marketing spend, cut executive pay, cut profits.

That’s according to consumer insights platform Zappi , which surveyed 1,500 adults in the UK as part of a wider global study. 

Key findings

• Two thirds (67%) of consumers expect brands to cut C-suite pay to keep prices down.
• Three quarters (75%) want brands to take accountability for soaring prices amidst the cost of living crisis by reducing their profits

• More than four in five (85%) believe brands should also cut down on marketing spend.

Why it matters

Consumer sentiment chimes with a recent UK government proposal to reward businesses for cutting adspend as a way to minimise price increases. While marketing theory and the marketing industry at large can see the holes in such a scheme, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen – and if it does, it potentially sets up consumers against those brands which continue to advertise. 

Throw in money-saving expert Martin Lewis’s warnings of civil unrest in reaction to rising energy prices and it’s not a huge step (with the caveat that the views highlighted in Zappi’s research were prompted) to think that everyday brands could be caught up in a serious backlash against impossible costs of living this winter. Marketers need to be gaming the worst-possible scenarios.

Sourced from Zappi, Marketing Week, Guardian, LinkedIn

TikTok micro-influencers boost APAC brands’ ROI: report

In a booming creator economy, micro-influencers on TikTok are an untapped opportunity for APAC brands, according to a report from social and media intelligence company Meltwater.

The Rise of the Creator Economy: A New Opportunity for Brands in Asia Pacific reveals that these social media users are emerging as brands’ top choice for collaboration.

Why it matters

Even as brands turn to celebrities for brand partnerships, micro-influencers with higher engagement and stronger connection to their audience can offer stronger ROI through hyperlocal marketing collaborations.

Key insights

• Some APAC brands have been successfully leveraging micro-influencers to connect with consumers and drive growth.
• In 2021, micro-influencers represented 91% of all sponsored post engagements, including likes, shares and comments, within APAC.
• The cost to engage micro-influencers in APAC versus famous influencers is lower, at an average US$200 per Instagram post.
• Such influencers see the strongest engagement rate on TikTok, with 32x/4x greater engagement than on Facebook/Instagram.
• APAC influencer population: Japan (600,000), Australia (400,000), Indonesia (400,000), Thailand (100,000), Singapore (70,000).

Quote

“Whether you call them influencers, content creators or key opinion leaders (KOLs), brands can benefit from tapping into the booming creator economy. An increasing number of consumers across Asia Pacific are turning to digital spaces and influencers to form their opinions and make purchase decisions” – Mimrah Mahmood, Senior Director and Partner, Meltwater Asia Pacific.

Background

The Meltwater report tracked and analysed the social profiles of over two million APAC-based content creators across Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Pinterest from July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022, combined with data from Meltwater’s social listening and media intelligence platform to generate insights into online conversations.

Disney+ sees benefits in lower ad load

Disney+, the streaming platform owned by The Walt Disney Company, believes that a lower hourly ad load can enhance the viewer experience while helping boost the price of inventory.

The background

• Disney+ boasted 152.1 million subscribers at the end of the last quarter, up by 14.4 million compared with the previous three-month trading period.
• The new ad-supported layer for this platform will be called Disney+ Basic, and launch in the US on December 8th, with plans for an international roll out next year.
• On that same date, the monthly price of Disney+ Premium, its ad-free version will rise from $7.99 to $10.99.

A deliberately conservative strategy

• Bob Chapek, CEO of the Walt Disney Co., said it will be cautious in terms of initial ad load, based on the logic it would be easier to increase, rather than decrease, ad loads.
• “We are walking before we run in terms of seeing what the market will bear in terms of an ad load. So we’re going in very conservative upfront,” he said on an earnings call.
  
• It was reported earlier this year that Disney+ would limit its ad load to four minutes per hour, but Chapek told investors it was in a test-and-learn phase.
• “We believe that there’s probably going to be some more ultimate elasticity in that as well as we go forward,” he said.
  

Lower ad loads, stronger CPMs

• Advertiser demand for Disney+ inventory has been strong, according to Chapek, reflecting the fact this platform houses many “premium brands in content and streaming”.
• Lower ad frequency will provide a “great experience for viewers”, he said. It also helped Disney+ secure an impressive cost-per-thousand (CPMs) at its parent company’s recent upfront.
• “This approach coupled with strong advertiser demand translated into Disney+ earning industry-leading CPM rates at the most recent upfront,” said Chapek.
• When Disney+ started selling ad space, agency executives reported that CPMs were in the $50 to $60 range, which were at the higher end of the industry spectrum.

A different offer than Hulu

• Disney is a majority owner of streaming platform Hulu, but Disney+ will operate on a different tech platform than its sister service.
• Chapek said that Hulu can provide some valuable lessons when it comes to tactics like addressable advertising, but added that Disney+ will have a distinct proposition.
• Christine McCarthy, the Walt Disney Company’s chief financial officer, reported that about two-thirds of Hulu’s 46.2 million subscribers use its ad-supported version.
• “We can’t anticipate that we’d have exactly the same behavior because it’s a different demo that has Disney+ versus Hulu, but that’s the best indication that we have,” she said. “We expect the ad tier to be popular and we also expect some people to want to stay with ad-free.”
  

Sourced from SeekingAlpha, TechCrunch, DigiDay

E-commerce slows in Japan

E-commerce in Japan saw a surge between 2019 and 2021 but growth has since tailed off, partly as the necessity to shop online has receded, partly because the sector is experiencing delivery problems.

Context 

Even before the pandemic, Japanese consumers shopped online much less than those in other nations, and, even with that lockdown surge, they still lag; for example, they shop online for daily essentials about 40% less than the average according to research by Statista.

Why it matters

Now, as consumers tire of shopping on smartphones and sales through brick and mortar stores pick up post-pandemic, there is an opportunity to reignite growth by expanding the role of physical stores in e-commerce. The Financial Times reports examples of clothes retailers seeing increased sales from adding new outlets just to allow consumers to see and try on items they’ve seen online.

Takeaways 

• Depending on the source, from 2019 to 2021 e-commerce grew between 20% (Nowcast & JCB) and 30% (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications).
• From January 2020 to April 2022, purchase prices rose in 70% of categories on online platforms Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo, according to research company Nint. 
• A shortage of delivery workers has prompted some groups to trial the use of self-driving robots to deliver fresh food and boxed meals.

Sourced from Financial Times 

Mental availability uplift from OOH creative with distinctive brand codes: study

Out-of-home (OOH) creative incorporating distinctive brand codes – including logo, colour, shape, tone of voice and style of imagery – averaged a 13% uplift in category mental availability versus weakly coded ads, according to research by media company JCDecaux New Zealand.

Why it matters

Using distinctive brand codes in OOH creative influences mental availability, which predicts the propensity for a brand to come to mind in a buying situation versus simply being known.

Key insights

• Mental availability is an important brand metric and is often undermeasured compared with awareness or consideration.
• Ads with strong brand codes are liked 31% more than weakly coded ads.
• Liked ads drive uplifts by 18% as strongly coded ads are easier to cognitively process, which leads to perceived preference.

Quote

“At JCDecaux, we subscribe to the view that advertising ‘works’ through building memory structures that consumers call on in a buying situation. This study puts specific numbers around our knowledge that strongly coded out-of-home advertising can influence decision making and drive a sales effect” – Victoria Parsons, Senior Insights and Strategy Specialist, JCDecaux New Zealand.

Background

The study was conducted in partnership with behavioural insights company NeuroSpot and involved 1,600 participants, who were shown real campaign creative across five categories: automotive, banking, FMCG, energy and alcoholic beverages (beer).

iHeartMedia believes wide customer base can help in soft ad market

iHeartMedia, a leading player in the US audio space, believes its wide customer base and diversified operations will be sources of strength if the ad market enters a challenging period.

The background

• Bob Pittman, iHeartMedia’s CEO, noted on an earrings call that it was originally hoped that 2022 would be a “robust advertising year” for the industry.
• However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and “secondary effects” like burgeoning inflation, have caused significant macroeconomic uncertainty.
• In response, many industry-watchers have expressed concerns that advertisers may soon cut back their outlay.

Mapping expenditure trends

• Looking at current expenditure patterns, iHeartMedia has noted a particular rhythm in activity on the part of advertisers.
• “We have seen a trend that we see more softness for the first month of the quarter than we do the other two months of the quarter,” Pittman said.
• “Our thesis is that in times of uncertainty, [in the] first month of the quarter, everybody takes a beat and waits and looks and then continues to spend in the other months.”

Strength in diversity

• Pittman reminded investors that iHeartMedia currently has “tens of thousands of advertisers”.
• Such a diverse slate of ad clients means there are likely to always be pockets of robust ad expenditure even if other parts of the market are “softer” in challenging times.
• “We've got no advertising category that's over 5% of our revenue [and] no single advertiser over 2%. So we have a remarkable diversity here,” Pittman said.

The advantages of audio

• Radio, Pittman continued, is “the least expensive medium with the largest reach”, meaning it has a compelling value proposition for advertisers.
• Diversification is also a source of strength for iHeartMedia, with digital more important in the mix, today delivering 26% of revenue, versus 12% in the first quarter of 2020.
• Even in the “major advertising downturn” of 2020, iHeartMedia’s digital revenues climbed by 26%, including a 91% lift for podcasts.
• “We feel the increased relative size of our digital and podcasting businesses … puts us in a stronger and more resilient position than we’ve ever been in to weather any advertising downturns,” Pittman said.
  

Final thought

“Advertisers who’ve lived through challenging economic times like these know that materially cutting back their marketing today will result in them losing sales over the long term. Instead of pulling back entirely during times of uncertainty, these marketers often look for more efficient means of engaging with their customer base” – Bob Pittman, CEO, iHeartMedia.

Roblox results reflect tough environment and a need for advertising

Roblox, the gaming and creation platform, has had another tricky quarter as overall revenue and user increases couldn’t make up for a dip in the critical “bookings” metric.

Why it matters

Roblox is the closest platform to a functioning metaverse (despite not being interoperable with other platforms) in which users can move between virtual experiences with an economic layer that binds it.

This is where bookings come in, as they cover what users have spent on Roblox’s virtual currency, Robux. As such, in previous earnings seasons WARC has explored the firm’s results from the perspective of consumer will to spend money on virtual items at a time of heightened interest in the metaverse.

Roblox has also been interesting from a brand perspective, as the company continues to entice investors with details of a self-service brand offer.

By the numbers

While the markets have reacted badly to a dip in bookings, it’s part of a wider slowdown in video gaming, which had naturally seen a huge boost during lockdowns when lots of gamers had nothing else to do. More recently, a more general dip in discretionary spending in the face of inflation has also affected the company.

Ahead of its earnings call, the company told the markets the following highlights for Q2 (all year-on-year):

• Revenue up 30% to $591.2m
• Bookings down 4% to $639.9m
• DAUs (daily active users) up 21% to 52.2m
• Hours engaged were up 16%.
• Bookings per DAU were down 21% to $12.25

While there is still a serious business in the economy of virtual currency and goods that the bookings signify, the many engaged users who are playing but not necessarily spending suggest a serious opportunity in advertising.

How advertising is going

Following the company’s explanation of validated brand accounts and boosted experiences in May (full details here) David Baszucki, Roblox chief executive outlined the investment going into the project:

“The product direction for this advertising system will also be self-service, but it will be complemented by our amazing brands. We have a great team. It's scaling. We have amazing people who are working with the Gucci and the Tommy Hilfiger […]  in this new form of advertising to the platform,” he told investors.

“We expect to continue building this amazing brand team. It will not be a sales team, it will be a consultative team to help people who are doing self-service and exploring our platform.”

He added that Roblox will be “testing our immersive advertising system sometime this year, we believe.”

A development flywheel

Part of the self-service ideal would mean brands seeking out experienced developers without even necessarily going through Roblox by using its talent hub – “that's the dynamic that we want to see, and as that demand comes from brands that will spur on more developers,” explained CFO Mike Guthrie, adding: “I wouldn't be surprised to see agencies off of it as well.”

Sourced from BusinessWire, Motley Fool, WARC

The regionalisation of Indian brands

“The brand and company will be relevant if your products and brands are contemporary and serve the consumers,” according to RS Sodhi, managing director, GCMMF (Amul) – and for the dairy giant that means getting increasingly local.

Context 

Thirty or forty years ago there was far less trust for Indian food brands, with imported brands carrying a perception of both quality and hygiene. Those attitudes are long gone, with Indian brands more than holding their own against the multinational giants. What’s happening now, though, is that consumers are increasingly looking even more locally for brands – and that puts new demands on marketing strategies as both national and international brands look to create the impression of being a regional brand.

What’s happening 

That’s an interesting development for a brand like Amul that has spent years promoting itself nationally and now finds itself moving to a more regional approach.

That has meant explaining how, for example, the milk it sells in a particular state is purchased from local villages and farmers.

“We are going more regional in our messaging,” RS Sodhi told Campaign Asia. “Whether it’s press, social media or TV, we are looking at creating brand opportunities via local languages.”

This could be a particularly effective play for Amul since it doesn’t have any pan-India rivals. “Our competition is from regional players, whether you take milk, butter, ghee, or even our ice creams,” Sodhi said. 

Sourced from Campaign Asia 

Sustainability: Prepare for new Green Guidelines

The Federal Trade Commission’s new guide to environmental marketing claims is due out this year and will be critical to brands pushing their sustainable credentials without greenwashing – but examples from around the world offer useful hints of how to prepare.

Why it matters

Last revised in 2012, the Wall Street Journal reports, the current guidance is vague in some areas that are now key, while also omitting terms that are now well-used but also quite easily abused – like ‘net zero.’ Consumers are sceptical of many such claims, and stricter regulations can help build trust across the board.

What to know

• Expect updated guidance on broad terms like ‘sustainable’.
• Expect a greater emphasis on life-cycle assessments of environmental claims. This takes in the impact of raw materials, the recyclability of products, and the use of carbon offsetting, which is not nearly as environmentally effective as reducing carbon impact within the supply chain.
• US marketers would do well to look at existing guidelines in markets that have already regulated such claims such as in Europe. In many cases, independent auditing and certification have been a useful tool for some brands.

In context

It follows efforts from other regulators, like the UK’s advertising and competition watchdogs whose strengthened rules have raised the burden of proof on green claims. The FTC has also acted against some major firms, but usually for misleading claims rather than thinly evidenced claims. This could yet change.

These new guidelines will determine what brands will be able to say in their marketing communications and what could draw scrutiny. At their best, these regulations could help truly green brands stand out from those who merely talk about it.

Sourced from the WSJ, WARC